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It’s common for clients to ask if they should wait for the next Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting before deciding on the mortgage rates available to them. The idea behind waiting is understandable, as many assume that the Bank of England’s base rate has a direct and immediate impact on mortgage rates. However, in most cases, the answer is no, and here’s why.

While the Bank of England’s MPC meets approximately every six weeks to review and decide what should happen to the base rate, this does not directly determine the mortgage rates that lenders offer for purchases, remortgages, or product transfers. Let’s explore why this is the case.

The base rate, set by the Bank of England, is a tool used to control inflation and manage economic stability. It influences the interest rates that banks pay to borrow money, but it’s just one of many factors that affect mortgage rates. Mortgage lenders set their rates based on several other considerations, with SWAP rates being one of the most critical factors.

SWAP rates are essentially contracts that banks and mortgage lenders use to manage the risk of future interest rate changes. When a lender offers a fixed-rate mortgage, they rely on SWAP rates to hedge against future changes in the cost of borrowing. In simple terms, a SWAP rate is a type of contract where two parties agree to exchange interest rate payments, usually switching from a variable rate to a fixed rate.

The important point here is that SWAP rates are not directly tied to the Bank of England’s base rate. Instead, they are influenced by the broader financial markets, which consider future economic expectations. SWAP rates can fluctuate independently of the base rate, driven by factors like market sentiment, inflation forecasts, and global economic conditions.

Unlike the more predictable base rate, SWAP rates are dynamic and can fluctuate daily. Here are some of the factors that influence SWAP rates:

1. Market Sentiment: If investors expect interest rates to rise in the future, SWAP rates may increase even if the current base rate stays the same. This can result in higher fixed-rate mortgages.
2. Inflation Forecasts: When inflation expectations rise, so do SWAP rates. Since fixed-rate mortgages are based on long-term borrowing costs, an anticipated rise in inflation will push SWAP rates higher, even if the base rate remains unchanged.
3. Global Economic Conditions: Economic events in other countries, such as changes in US Federal Reserve policies or geopolitical developments, can influence SWAP rates in the UK. This adds further volatility that is not directly linked to the Bank of England’s base rate.

Because mortgage rates are more closely linked to SWAP rates than the base rate, waiting for the next Bank of England decision is often unnecessary. By the time the MPC makes its announcement, lenders have usually already adjusted their mortgage rates based on broader economic forecasts. In many cases, the impact of the base rate change may be far less significant than expected.

The best approach is to secure the best available rate now, and if rates decrease before your mortgage completes, you can often switch to a lower rate without penalty. Here’s how it works:

• For Purchases or Remortgages: You can secure a rate and make changes up until one week before completion. This gives you flexibility in case better rates appear after you’ve locked in your deal.
• For Product Transfers: If you’re staying with your current lender and switching to a new product, you have the option to change rates up to two weeks before your fixed-rate mortgage expires.

If you don’t secure a rate now and rates increase, you could miss out on today’s lower rates. Once your application is submitted, most lenders will allow you to benefit from any rate reductions that happen before completion, without penalizing you if rates go up.

Many lenders also allow multiple changes during this period, including switching between products. For example, you could move from a two-year tracker to a five-year fixed-rate mortgage for more stability.

By securing the rate now, you protect yourself against potential rate increases while retaining the flexibility to benefit from rate reductions or product changes. In short, there’s no downside to locking in a rate today, and it ensures you don’t miss out on more competitive deals later.